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The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria was a major strategic setback for Iran, and the biggest loss is when it loses another important ally in the region, which is Iraq. The following are the current strategic dimensions of these setbacks:-
Regarding the fall of the Assad regime in Syria
Losing a major ally: Iran lost a major ally in the region, which was part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, led by (the Islamic Republic of Iran), as this alliance was crucial to its strategic influence in the Middle East, as it provided a deeply integrated political and military partnership in Iran’s regional strategy.
Disrupting weapons supply routes: Disrupting the land and air routes (through Iraq) used to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon was among the most important losses for Iran, as the Syrian corridor was essential for rearming and supporting the party, and ensuring a continuous supply of weapons and fighters. With the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, this logistical route was cut off, which greatly hindered Iran’s ability to impose its power and support its allies in Lebanon.
Diminishing Regional Influence: The Bashar al-Assad regime has been the linchpin of Iran’s strategy to expand its influence into the Mediterranean, and the implausible speed with which the government collapses in Syria has weakened Iran’s so-called “ring of fire” around Israel, undermining one of its core strategies for deterrence and influence in the region.
This has led to a reassessment of Iran’s regional power, as it no longer has the same level of control or influence over the political and military landscape in Syria.
Military and Financial Investment: Iran has invested heavily in propping up the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, both in terms of military personnel and financial resources.
Some “estimates” suggest that Iran has spent between $30 and $50 billion in Syria over the years, supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime with advisers (as Iran calls them), fighters, and financial aid.
The sudden collapse of this investment means that Iran’s military capabilities and economic resources in the region have been significantly depleted without achieving the expected strategic gains.
Impact on Hezbollah: Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in Lebanon and its stronghold against Israel, has been weakened by the loss of Syrian support. The party has suffered greatly in conflicts with Israel, and without support through Syria, the party’s ability to recover and maintain its previous level of strength is severely compromised. This affects Iran’s ability to balance Israeli influence and military actions in the region.
Regional political reorganization: The power vacuum left by the fall of the pro-Iranian regime in Syria has led to a reorganization of regional powers, with countries such as Turkey expanding their influence in Syria at the expense of both Iran and Russia. This shift not only reduces Iran’s strategic depth, but also increases its isolation, as the regional situation changes rapidly, which could lead to Iran being further encircled by its adversaries or neutral countries that do not give it a chance to intervene.
Local and international prestige: Internally, the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has led to criticism within Iran of its foreign policies and strategic decisions, and externally, it has damaged Iran’s image as a powerful strategic player, which may encourage opponents and complicate relations with potential allies or neutral countries.
Loss of trade routes, oil, gas and electricity from Iran to the Mediterranean: Iran has long sought to reach Mediterranean ports, by linking railways passing through Iraq, starting from ports in Iran for trade exchange, as well as extending a gas pipeline from its giant fields through Iraq (2011), and also exporting Iranian oil by linking its pipelines to an Iraqi pipeline system extending to the port of Baniyas in Syria.
Iran has also sought to benefit from the large phosphate deposits in Syria for its interests, as well as extracting the uranium needed for its facilities from it.
In general, Iran’s strategic losses in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad represent a major blow to its regional strategy, weakening its regional power, and the concept of the “axis of resistance.”
These developments have forced Iran to reconsider its approach in the Middle East, which could lead to a more defensive or more inward-looking stance, or, conversely, to take more aggressive actions to regain what it has lost.
If a scenario similar to what happened in Syria were to occur in Iraq!
Iran would face similar strategic losses as explained in the Syria, but with some unique repercussions due to the different political and sectarian landscape in Iraq. Here are the future strategic dimensions:
Losing a strategic partner: Just as happened in Syria, Iran would lose a key ally in Iraq if a government hostile to Iranian interests took power.
Iraq has been a pivotal part of Iran since the fall of the regime in 2003, as Iraq has served as a buffer state and a corridor of influence in the Arab world, and losing control over the political direction of Iraq would be a major setback for Iran’s regional strategy.
Disruption of Supply Lines: Iraq serves as another critical land route for Iran, particularly for logistical support to militias and allies, and the fall of a pro-Iran government in Iraq would likely close or severely restrict these supply lines, significantly impacting Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah and other proxy groups.
Decreased Influence on Shiite Militias: In Iraq, Iran has invested heavily in supporting Shiite militias, which have become part of the country’s security apparatus, and any change in government that distances itself from Iran could result in these militias losing power or dismantling them, reducing Iran’s direct influence in the Iraqi security and political landscape.
Economic Implications: Iran has economic interests in Iraq, particularly in the energy and trade sectors, and a shift in government in Iraq could lead to economic sanctions, a trade embargo, or a reorientation of Iraqi economic partnerships away from Iran, impacting Iran’s economy.
Security and Border Issues: Iran’s western border with Iraq is vital for regional security and political reasons, and a hostile regime in Iraq could strengthen or support groups hostile to Iran, potentially increasing security threats along the border, including support for insurgent groups or (separatist) factions seeking autonomy or independence, potentially further destabilizing the region.
Regional Political Realignment: As in Syria, a major shift in Iraq could prompt a reassessment among regional powers, potentially leading to a new alliance in which countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or even Western powers could gain more influence.
This would further isolate Iran, limiting its ability to project power or influence politics in the broader Middle East.
Iranian domestic politics: The loss of influence in Iraq is likely to have domestic repercussions, similar to the scenario in Syria, and may lead to domestic criticism of Iranian foreign policy, affecting the political standing of hardliners who advocate an expansionist policy in the region.
Impact on the axis of resistance: Iraq is another part of the Iranian axis of resistance against Israel and Western influence, and the loss of Iraq would mean a significant setback in this strategy, weakening the encirclement of Israel and limiting Iran’s ability to challenge its opponents through proxy warfare.
A major shift in the regional balance of power: With Iraq out of direct Iranian influence, Iran will face a major reassessment of its regional power, which could lead to a more isolated position unless it adapts to the real situation, which could mean either focusing on consolidating power within its borders or seeking new alliances in unexpected places.
In short, if a scenario similar to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Iraq were to occur, Iran would suffer strategic setbacks in terms of political influence, military logistics, economic relations, and regional power projection, and this would necessitate a major recalibration of Iranian foreign policy, potentially leading to a more defensive posture or the search for new strategic partnerships to compensate for these losses.
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